Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States and Iran have announced a 60-day ceasefire and a framework to negotiate a final nuclear deal, yet the pivotal question of stringent constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme remains unresolved[1][5]. Despite a memorandum of understanding signed in Geneva that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and suspends hostilities, no qualifying written diplomatic instrument for a final deal has been mutually signed or adopted as of today[1][4]. This market prices the contract at 0% YES on Polymarket, reflecting the on-chain consensus that the current interim agreement does not satisfy the settlement criteria for a final, signed instrument by August 2026[2][5].

Historically, similar diplomatic frameworks between these nations have stalled when core nuclear issues, such as enriched uranium stockpiles and sanctions relief, remain unaddressed[5]. The 2015 agreement under President Obama saw Iran offer assurances against nuclear weapons, yet those commitments were repeatedly tested and ultimately failed to prevent programme expansion[1]. The current 0% probability mirrors this precedent: while the US and Iran have halted military actions and released some frozen assets, critical disputes over uranium reserves and the scope of sanctions relief persist, making a final signed deal unlikely within the settlement window[3][5].

Traders should monitor the upcoming technical working groups formed to address sanctions and nuclear activities, as well as any announcements regarding IAEA inspector access to Iranian sites[3][4]. The US has lifted oil sanctions for 60 days, but Washington has not confirmed the release of $12 billion in frozen assets, a key Iranian demand[3]. With negotiations set to commence in detail in Geneva, the next catalyst will be whether both sides can resolve the status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and agree on a permanent denuclearisation path before the August deadline[3][5]. Any delay in these technical talks or failure to confirm asset releases will likely keep the probability near zero.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.