Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 4 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius, with the market currently pricing a 29°C hit at roughly 30.5% implied probability despite the crowd showing 0% confidence in the YES side for that specific bracket. On Polymarket, this contract trades in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where the NO side at $0.70 is the favoured position, reflecting a trader consensus that the peak will likely fall outside the narrow 29°C window rather than hit it exactly.

Historical July data frames this low probability for a single 29°C outcome, as South Korea’s summer typically sees average highs near 28°C to 30°C with 12 rainy days and 86% humidity, meaning daily peaks fluctuate across multiple brackets rather than clustering at one figure. In July, average highs can approach 30°C but feel like over 34°C due to moisture, and the monsoon season (Jangma) often brings concentrated, heavy rainfall that disrupts consistent heat spikes, making any single temperature bracket a minority call despite its statistical plausibility.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for shower intensity and precipitation probability, as recent updates indicate a 60% chance of slight rainfall with temperatures feeling up to 26°C, which could suppress the daily maximum. The timing of the monsoon’s end is critical, as delays into late July increase rain concentration and reduce peak temperatures, while a sudden clear spell could push highs toward 33°C; no official announcements have yet confirmed a shift, so real-time Wunderground data for Incheon remains the primary dependency for resolving this on-chain market.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.