Pronóstico: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already delivered a historic penalty miss, with Lionel Messi failing to convert against Austria, marking the first recorded miss in this tournament. This single event immediately challenges the market’s current crowd-implied probability of just 2% for a “Yes” outcome, suggesting the price may be detached from the on-chain reality that a missed penalty has already occurred.

Historically, World Cup tournaments rarely see zero missed penalties; the 1994 final’s decisive miss by Roberto Baggio remains the most iconic example, yet even in recent editions, multiple misses or saves have occurred across group and knockout stages. With Messi now holding an unenvied record of 31 career penalty failures and Germany already recording three missed attempts in the tournament, the threshold for “Yes” is far more likely to be met than the 2% probability implies.

Traders should monitor official match schedules and referee announcements for upcoming knockout fixtures, where pressure intensifies and miss rates typically rise. Recent coverage from Yahoo Sports highlights the tournament’s pattern of high-stakes missed penalties, reinforcing that the settlement window ending 20 July 2026 will likely capture further non-conversions. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, ensure transparent resolution based solely on official FIFA data, making the current price a clear arbitrage opportunity for those tracking real-time penalty outcomes.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.