Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 4 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 27°C outcome at 57% probability, while the 28°C and higher ranges sit below 1% each[1]. This stark divergence from the 0% implied probability for the highest temperature suggests the crowd expects a moderate summer day rather than an extreme heatwave, a view framed by recent historical precedents where Tokyo’s July highs typically hover between 26°C and 31°C, with the nation’s record of 41.2°C set in Tamba City last year being an outlier rather than a norm[9][10].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts and any announcements regarding flight delays at Haneda, as severe weather can disrupt air traffic and correlate with temperature spikes[8]. The AccuWeather forecast for July 2026 indicates daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), providing a baseline for expected conditions, while the National Weather Service’s live data for Haneda shows early morning temperatures at 72°F (22°C), suggesting a gradual rise toward midday[3][4]. With the settlement window closing on 4 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the on-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC and conditional tokens will resolve based on Wunderground’s official data point for that date[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.