Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a YES resolution sitting at 0%. This reflects the market’s view that the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely because July in Taipei is historically hot, making extreme lows improbable.

Historically, July is the hottest month at Taipei Songshan Airport, with average highs reaching 92°F (33°C), and record temperatures in Taipei hitting 39.7°C (104°F) in recent years, as noted by Taiwan’s weather authorities[8]. Such data frames the 0% probability as a mispricing, since even moderate heat would exceed the range, suggesting traders should reassess the contract’s risk profile based on seasonal norms[3].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts and any official announcements from the Central Weather Administration regarding heatwaves or monsoon activity, which could push temperatures higher. Recent reports indicate a 40% chance of precipitation and local thunderstorms on 1 July, which may temporarily lower temperatures but rarely enough to invalidate the heat trend[1]. Watching Wunderground’s hourly updates for the station will be critical, as resolution depends solely on its highest daily reading[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.