Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a YES result sitting at 0%. This reflects the market’s view that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite July historically being warm in Singapore.

Historical data shows that July average highs in Singapore are around 31°C, with daytime temperatures rarely exceeding 34°C (93°F), though the all-time record for Singapore is 37°C, tied in Ang Mo Kio in 2023[7]. While extreme heat events are uncommon in July, the 0% probability suggests traders expect conditions to stay within typical bounds rather than breach the threshold required for a YES outcome[1][3].

Traders should monitor the Singapore Meteorological Service’s daily forecasts and any sudden convective activity, as July often brings sudden showers that can suppress peak temperatures[2]. Additionally, watch for updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which will publish the day’s highest temperature at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026. Recent climate reports indicate that while Singapore’s temperatures are rising, July 2026 is not expected to produce record-breaking heat[5]. On-chain, this contract trades on Polymarket using USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens determining settlement once the resolution window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.