Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

On 27 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its highest temperature for the day, a real-world metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specified range, despite historical data suggesting June highs in Shanghai regularly exceed 30°C.

Historical patterns for Shanghai Pudong in June show daily high temperatures climbing from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dropping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, with summer highs frequently surpassing 30°C and reaching 35°C during sunny spells [3][5]. The hot season officially begins around 17 June, meaning the 27th sits squarely within the period where average daily highs exceed 80°F, making a 0% probability for a high-temperature range appear statistically inconsistent with long-term climate norms [6].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground hourly feed for the Pudong station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day [2]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, the immediate forecast for Hongqiao shows sunny conditions with a high of 29°C and light winds, suggesting similar clear skies for Pudong which could drive temperatures higher [1]. The USDC settlement on the Polygon network relies entirely on this conditional token mechanism, where the final price will adjust as the 12:00 UTC settlement window approaches and real-time data confirms the actual peak temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.