Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows a 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the market believes the temperature will not fall within the specified range. This stark valuation contrasts with historical data: July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with daily highs at Pudong typically rising from 84°F to 88°F (29°C to 31°C), rarely dipping below 75°F (24°C) [2][9]. Summer highs regularly exceed 30°C, reaching 35°C during peak sunshine [5]. A 0% probability suggests the range in question is likely below 24°C or above 35°C, both extreme outliers for this date.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily report for ZSPD, which settles the market, and watch for any sudden shifts in the forecast as the day approaches. BBC Weather currently predicts a high of 26°C (79°F) for 1 July near Hongqiao, slightly cooler than Pudong’s typical average [1]. While no major weather announcements are imminent, the on-chain mechanics—USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens—mean liquidity can shift rapidly if forecast updates emerge. The settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, so real-time data from Wunderground will be the sole catalyst for resolution [4]. Traders must treat the 0% price as a signal of range misalignment, not a guarantee of no heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.