Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 25 June 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall into the specified range, despite Seoul’s typical June highs of 19–28°C (66–82°F) and Incheon’s slightly cooler coastal profile [1][2].

Historically, late June in South Korea marks the onset of the monsoon season, with rising humidity and frequent afternoon showers that often suppress peak temperatures [1][3]. While early June days can reach 28°C, late June tends to be hotter and more humid, yet rain events frequently cap highs below extreme levels [2]. Comparable years show that even with humidity over 80%, real-feel temperatures may hit 35°C+, but actual recorded highs at Incheon rarely exceed 30°C unless a heatwave coincides with dry conditions [6].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for 24–25 June, particularly any announcements of heatwaves or prolonged dry spells that could elevate temperatures [5]. A key catalyst is the timing of the monsoon’s arrival; if heavy rains are delayed, unmitigated solar heating could push Incheon’s high above 30°C, potentially altering the market’s resolution [3]. Recent KBS weather reports for 25 June 2026 note midday highs of 27°C with heavy afternoon showers, suggesting current conditions may limit extreme heat [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.