Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Paris on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, the Polymarket contract prices this outcome with a 0% implied probability for the "YES" range, yet the frontrunner is actually 24°C at 47%, followed by 25°C at 35%[1]. This stark divergence between the current crowd-implied probability and the market’s leading temperature outcomes suggests traders are betting on a specific range rather than a binary yes/no, with recent cooling after France’s record June heatwave driving the concentration toward 26–27°C as the most probable high[1].

Historically, Paris has seen extreme heat during European heatwaves, with the national thermal indicator reaching 29.8°C in June 2026 and local peaks hitting 44.3°C in Landes[2][3]. Météo France is projecting highs of up to 37°C in Paris for the coming days, placing the city near its all-time record threshold[5]. These comparable cases frame how to read the current probability: the market is not dismissing heat entirely but is recalibrating expectations downward after the June peak, making 24–25°C the consensus high rather than the extreme 40°C+ seen in the southwest.

Traders should watch Météo France’s daily bulletins and the scheduled heatwave alerts for the Paris region, as these announcements directly influence temperature forecasts and market sentiment[2]. The settlement window ends on 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z, and the resolution source is Wunderground data from Paris-Le Bourget Airport[1]. Recent news confirms that severe conditions are anticipated to persist at least until the week’s end, with daytime temperatures soaring in numerous areas[2]. On-chain mechanics using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens allow real-time odds updates as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting the latest collective view of what is most likely to happen[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.