Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the contract currently priced at 0% YES for the upper temperature range. On Polymarket, this conditional token is traded using USDC on the Polygon network, where the zero probability reflects the crowd’s belief that the heat will not breach the specified threshold.

Historically, June in New York City sees average daytime maximums of 26°C (79°F), with long-term data indicating low heat and humidity for the month[2]. However, June 2026 is projected to be the eighth warmest June on record, finishing with a mean temperature 2.4° above normal, suggesting a higher likelihood of extreme heat days than typical[10]. Comparable cases from recent years show that while 81–82°F ranges occur, they remain less frequent, aligning with the current 37% probability for that specific bracket in similar markets[3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s ongoing forecasts for the East Coast, particularly any updates on extreme heat warnings or shifts in high-pressure systems that could push temperatures toward 90°F[5][9]. Recent reports indicate that temperatures have already soared to 90°F along the East Coast in April, hinting at a volatile summer pattern that could influence late June conditions[9]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s final daily data for LaGuardia, so any discrepancies between forecast models and observed readings will be critical as the settlement window closes on 26 June at 12:00 UTC[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.