Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in degrees Fahrenheit will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a YES result sitting at just 4%. This low probability reflects the extreme rarity of such high heat in early July, even as New York City has recently experienced record-breaking temperatures. For context, LaGuardia reached 102°F on a recent Thursday, breaking its daily high-temperature record, and set a new midnight record of 94°F, surpassing the previous 93°F mark from 2013[1][3]. These figures illustrate that while heatwaves are intensifying, hitting temperatures high enough to trigger this specific contract remains an outlier event, framing the 4% price as a realistic assessment of historical volatility rather than an arbitrary guess.

Traders should closely monitor the ongoing heatwave forecasts and any official announcements from the National Weather Service regarding temperature spikes, as these will directly influence on-chain pricing dynamics. The July 2026 forecast for LaGuardia indicates daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with overnight lows between 68°F and 83°F, suggesting that a sudden surge above 99°F would be a significant deviation from the norm[4]. Recent news from FOX Weather highlights that the heat has persisted into the night, with LaGuardia recording its warmest midnight on record at 94°F, a trend that could escalate if the heatwave continues unabated[1][2]. As the settlement window closes on 2026-07-07T12:00:00Z, the conditional tokens on Polygon, backed by USDC, will reflect these real-time dependencies, making the market a precise instrument for betting on the day’s peak temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.