Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a dangerous heatwave intensifying across New York City, with meteorologists forecasting highs to soar to 98°F (37°C) on 5 July 2026, well above the long-term average of 84°F for July[1][2]. This extreme warmth, combined with high humidity, could push the heat index to 105°F or higher during peak afternoon hours, creating dangerous conditions for heat exhaustion[1]. The settlement window for this market closes at 12:00 UTC on 5 July, meaning the LaGuardia Airport Station’s recorded maximum temperature for the entire day will determine the outcome[3].

Historically, LaGuardia has set record midnight temperatures, reaching 94°F in early July 2026, breaking the 2013 record of 93°F, which suggests the potential for sustained extreme heat even overnight[3]. While average July highs in NYC are typically 84°F, recent years have seen spikes to 100°F in Central Park, indicating that record-breaking days are increasingly plausible[2][5]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature range appears disconnected from these observed trends, as similar heatwaves have previously pushed temperatures into the upper 90s or triple digits across the East Coast[1].

Traders should monitor official National Weather Service updates and local heat advisories, as the current forecast warns of sweltering conditions through 5–6 July, with neighboring cities like Philadelphia and Boston also under heat advisories[1][7]. A recent Fox Weather report confirmed LaGuardia’s record-breaking midnight temperature, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high temperatures throughout the day[3]. Additionally, residents are advised to avoid strenuous outdoor activity during peak heat, a dependency that underscores the severity of the forecast and the potential for the market to resolve in a higher temperature range[1]. The on-chain mechanics of Polymarket, using USDC on Polygon with conditional tokens, will reflect these real-time shifts in probability as the settlement window approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.