Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 3 July 2026, a date that has already seen extreme heat in recent days. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the market believes the temperature will not reach the specific threshold required for a positive outcome, despite the intense heatwave currently gripping New York.

Historical precedents frame this low probability with caution, as LaGuardia has recently shattered its own records. On 2 July 2026, the airport hit 104°F, surpassing its daily high of 101°F from 1966, while the previous midnight recorded a warmest-ever reading of 94°F for the city[2][3]. These comparable cases indicate that temperatures in early July are volatile and capable of extreme spikes, yet the market’s 0% stance implies a belief that the specific threshold for this contract remains unattainable despite the 100°F readings observed on 3 July at 5:20 pm[1].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground settlement data for KLGA, which is the sole resolution source, and watch for any late-announced weather model adjustments or heat advisories that could shift expectations. The settlement window ends on 3 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, and the market resolves on USDC via Polygon using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity and price movements are directly tied to the on-chain mechanics rather than abstract weather forecasts[5]. Recent news confirms the heatwave is active, with LaGuardia hitting 104°F and JFK reaching 100°F, making the dependency on the final Wunderground reading critical for any position[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.