Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this contract, with the market currently pricing a 35% chance for 32°C and 30% for 31°C, while the specific "YES" outcome for a higher threshold sits at 0% implied probability. On Polymarket, traders are using USDC on the Polygon network to buy conditional tokens, where the on-chain mechanics ensure that settlement occurs automatically once Wunderground publishes the official daily high for the RPLL station.

Historically, July falls within Manila’s wet season, which typically sees average temperatures between 26°C and 31°C, contrasting with the hotter dry months of March and April where averages reach 28°C to 32°C. Although April is usually the hottest month, recent data from PAGASA indicates that Metro Manila has experienced dangerous heat indices reaching 44°C, suggesting that extreme spikes can occur even during the rainy season when humidity amplifies apparent temperatures.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily heat forecasts and any announcements regarding tropical disturbances, as July is the peak month for rainfall which can suppress temperatures but also elevate the heat index. A recent report from the Inquirer noted that Metro Manila may log apparent temperatures of 43°C to 44°C, highlighting the volatility of heat perception versus actual air temperature. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, so real-time Wunderground updates for the RPLL station will be the final dependency for resolution.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.