Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite June in Hong Kong consistently seeing highs between 28°C and 32°C[2]. Historical data shows June averages around 31°C, with July and August typically hotter at 32°C[2], while a recent June 22 market resolved at 33°C[1], suggesting extreme heat is possible but not guaranteed for this specific date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather updates for the 27 June forecast, which currently predicts mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, with temperatures ranging from 27°C to 31°C[8]. The key catalyst is the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” data, which will publish the official “Absolute Daily Max” once the settlement window closes on 2026-06-27T12:00:00Z[7]. On-chain mechanics involve USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, meaning liquidity and price movements will react directly to any sudden shifts in the forecast or early weather anomalies before the official data release.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.