Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome on any specific range, the market is actively pricing the 31°C range at 59% and the 30°C range at 32%, reflecting a collective view that temperatures will fall within this band rather than exceed it dramatically[1].

Historical data frames this probability with clarity: July 2018 saw a mean maximum temperature of 31.8°C, while the highest monthly maximum recorded since 1885 reached 35.7°C[4][6]. Recent trends show Hong Kong experienced its sixth-hottest year in 2025, with all twelve months warmer than usual and an annual mean temperature of 24.3°C, 0.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline[7]. These precedents suggest that 30–31°C is a statistically probable outcome for early July, making the 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific range appear misaligned with the broader on-chain pricing.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" for finalised data, as the market cannot resolve until this official publication is available[1]. Recent forecasts indicate daytime highs of 27–32°C for 3–4 July amid partly cloudy skies and scattered rain, which supports the current frontrunner pricing[1]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 4 July 2026, and all trades execute on Polygon using USDC conditional tokens, meaning liquidity shifts will directly reflect real-time updates from the observatory’s climate data portal[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.