Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 2 July 2026 will be measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place by the Hong Kong Observatory, with the official figure published in the Daily Extract once finalised. On Polymarket today, this contract trades at 0% probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the crowd’s near-total certainty that the temperature will not fall within the specified range. The market resolves on-chain using USDC on the Polygon network, with conditional tokens determining the payout once the Observatory releases the Absolute Daily Max data.

Historical July data frames this 0% probability as well-founded: July is typically Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs around 32°C (90°F), and daily peaks frequently reaching 31–36°C [5][7]. The seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 predicts normal to above-normal temperatures, with ENSO conditions supporting warmer-than-average conditions [1]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast shows daily highs ranging from 86°F to 96°F (30–36°C), with an average high of 89°F (32°C) [2]. Given this consistent thermal pattern, a temperature outside the range is statistically improbable.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract release schedule, as the market cannot resolve until the Absolute Daily Max is officially published [1]. A key catalyst is the upcoming seasonal update, which may refine temperature expectations based on evolving ENSO status and climate model outputs [1]. Recent short-term forecasts indicate mainly cloudy conditions with light rain patches through 9 July, which could temporarily suppress peak temperatures but not alter the monthly trend [3]. No immediate weather announcements are expected to shift the 0% probability, as the underlying climatic reality remains unchanged.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.