Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 1 July 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" result sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract is priced today with "35°C" as the frontrunner at 38%, followed by "36°C" at 25%, reflecting the market’s confidence in typical July heat rather than extreme outliers. Traders using USDC on the Polygon network can trade conditional tokens that resolve based on Wunderground’s official daily high for the station, with settlement finalising at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026.

Historically, Guangzhou’s July highs cluster around 33–36°C, rarely dipping below 30°C or exceeding 39°C, as average daily highs hover near 33°C (91°F) with occasional spikes to 36°C (96.8°F) during cloudy, rainy periods [2][7][8]. Notably, the city’s all-time record of 39.1°C occurred precisely on 1 July 2004, suggesting that while extreme heat is possible on this date, it remains an outlier rather than a norm [4]. The 0% "YES" probability likely reflects a market assumption that temperatures will fall within the standard range, not breach the threshold required for a "YES" outcome.

Traders should monitor China’s national weather bureau announcements for any forecasts of record-breaking heatwaves, as the country recently experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, with average temperatures eclipsing previous highs [3][6]. Key dependencies include real-time Wunderground updates for the Baiyun station, as well as regional rainfall patterns that could suppress temperatures below 35°C. With the settlement window closing in hours, on-chain liquidity and conditional token pricing will shift rapidly based on these live data feeds, making timely execution critical for informed positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.