Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded. This near-zero probability is stark when compared to historical June data for Love Field, where daily highs routinely reach 96° to 100°F, with overnight lows between 77° and 83°F[2]. A similar market on 14 June 2026 resolved to 84–85°F, yet the forecast for late June suggests significantly warmer conditions, making the current pricing appear disconnected from seasonal norms[1].

Traders must monitor the official Wunderground resolution feed, which will publish the first data point for 28 June once available, as the market cannot resolve until this threshold is met[1]. The primary catalyst is the National Weather Service observation at 05:53 UTC on the day, which recorded 81°F at 05:53 and 82°F at 04:53, indicating a partly cloudy start that could influence the peak temperature[5]. While no specific weather announcements are pending, the dependency on the Wunderground dataset means any delay in data transmission could impact settlement timing, and traders should watch for updates on the Polygon network regarding USDC liquidity for conditional tokens as the settlement window approaches 2026-06-28T12:00:00Z. The historical average high for this period is 94.2°F, contrasting sharply with the 83°F recorded on 25 June 2026, suggesting a potential warming trend that the market may be underestimating[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.