Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing on 2 July 2026 is entering its peak summer window, where July and August routinely deliver the city’s highest temperatures, averaging around 33°C with peaks soaring to 43°C under intense humidity and urban heat island effects[1][4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature range appears stark when weighed against historical records showing summer highs between 25°C and 35°C, with extreme days reaching 43°C[2][5]. Traders on Polymarket are pricing this contract today with the highest implied probability assigned to a 26°C maximum, followed closely by 25°C and 27°C, suggesting the market expects a moderate rather than extreme peak despite the season’s typical ferocity[3].

Historical patterns frame this low probability as potentially misaligned with climate reality, given Chongqing’s reputation as one of China’s “Four Furnaces,” where temperatures frequently exceed 35°C and feel like 43°C due to humidity[5][7]. The rainy season from June to August adds variability, but does not consistently suppress extreme heat, meaning a 0% probability for higher ranges may overlook the likelihood of a sudden heat spike[2]. Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, which serves as the resolution source for this market, to detect any emerging heatwave announcements or schedule changes in local monitoring protocols[3]. Recent climate analyses indicate that urban heat effects in Chongqing are intensifying, making extreme days more probable than seasonal averages suggest, a factor conditional tokens on the Polygon network may not yet fully price in[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.