Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing in July is the city’s hottest month, with daytime highs typically climbing between 25°C and 33°C, and historical peaks reaching 38°C or even 40°C during intense heatwaves[1][6]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES on the contract for a temperature range above a specific threshold on 5 July 2026 suggests traders believe conditions will stay well below extreme levels, yet this contradicts long-term averages where 5 July often records the warmest day of the month, averaging 33°C[2]. Comparable markets, such as the recent July 4 peak heat contract pricing 35°C at 37.5%, show that thin volume and weather model divergence can create mispricings before resolution, framing why a 0% probability may be overly dismissive of seasonal norms[3].

Traders should monitor the Beijing Meteorological Bureau’s daily high-temperature forecasts and any official heatwave alerts issued for early July, as these directly influence on-chain conditional token pricing via USDC settlements on Polygon[4]. Recent AccuWeather data indicates daily highs for July 2026 will range from 82°F to 99°F (28°C to 37°C), with overnight lows between 68°F and 81°F, suggesting a plausible window for temperatures to breach moderate thresholds if a sudden heat spike occurs[4]. The settlement source, Wunderground’s record for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, will resolve the market based on the highest temperature recorded at any time on 5 July, making real-time station updates and thunderstorm forecasts critical dependencies that could shift probabilities rapidly[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.