Pronóstico: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States and Iran have electronically authorised a preliminary memorandum ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, yet the market for Trump personally signing a final written agreement remains priced at just 3% on Polymarket. This low conditional probability reflects the distinction between the current memorandum of understanding and the stricter requirement for Trump to sign a binding treaty in an official capacity before July 2026.

Historically, similar high-stakes negotiations, such as the 2015 JCPOA, saw leaders sign frameworks while final ratification faced legislative hurdles or required extended negotiation windows. The current 60-day timeline for finalising the deal, coupled with Trump’s prior emphasis on nuclear constraints, suggests the process is unlikely to culminate in his direct signature of a final treaty within the settlement window, mirroring how past accords often stalled before reaching that definitive stage.

Traders should monitor the upcoming ceremonial signing by Vice President JD Vance in Geneva and any announcements regarding the release of the full agreement text, as these are critical catalysts for the deal’s progression. Recent reporting from NBC News confirms Vance’s scheduled visit for the ceremonial signing, but the absence of immediate confirmation that Trump will personally sign the final document reinforces the market’s scepticism about a 3% chance of resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.