Pronóstico: Venezuela leader end of 2026?

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Market context

On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who were subsequently flown out of the country and indicted by US authorities on charges of narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking[4][7]. Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s ally and former vice-president, was sworn in as acting president on 5 January 2026 following a Supreme Tribunal of Justice order and military recognition[1][3]. The market currently prices a 4% chance that Rodríguez will not be the head of state by 31 December 2026, implying strong confidence in her continued tenure despite the unprecedented US intervention[1][2].

Historically, sudden leadership transitions following foreign intervention often stabilise quickly if the new leader secures military backing, as Rodríguez has done[1][3]. Comparable cases, such as post-intervention governments in Latin America, show that interim leaders appointed by courts and recognised by the armed forces rarely face immediate removal unless a new coup or external pressure emerges[1][2]. Rodríguez’s appointment was formalised by Venezuela’s high court, and she has maintained control since the ousting, with the government remaining in place and her amnesty bill approved in February 2026[1][3].

Traders should monitor announcements from the US administration regarding Venezuela’s status, as President Trump has implied the nation is now a US protectorate, meaning Rodríguez serves at the will of the US president[2]. Key catalysts include any new US court rulings on Rodríguez’s recognition as sole head of state, which the US declared on 12 March 2026[3], and potential shifts in military loyalty or internal political moves within Venezuela’s National Assembly[1][3]. The settlement window ends 31 December 2026, so any change in Rodríguez’s position before that date would resolve the contract to the UN-listed head of state if the Venezuelan government remains unclear[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.