Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jaume Munar

Platform comparison

Market context

Jacob Fearnley faces Jaume Munar in the second round of Wimbledon on 2 July 2026 at 12:30 pm local time, with the match currently unstarted at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club[1][3]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 5% implied probability for Fearnley advancing, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens that resolve strictly on the on-chain outcome[4]. The market’s low valuation reflects Munar’s stronger recent form and head-to-head history, with tipsters favouring the Spanish player to win[1].

Historically, similar second-round Wimbledon mismatches where one player holds a clear advantage in grass-court experience have seen the underdog’s probability hover between 3% and 7% before the match, mirroring today’s pricing[5]. In past cases, such as when a lower-ranked qualifier faced a seasoned top-20 player on grass, the market corrected sharply only after the first set, not before the event began. This suggests the 5% figure is a rational reflection of Munar’s dominance rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor the official Wimbledon schedule for any delays or weather-related postponements, as the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is delayed beyond seven days without a winner[2]. Recent coverage from Tennis.com notes Munar’s improved serve speed on grass, a key catalyst that could further depress Fearnley’s chances if confirmed in the first set[7]. No major injury announcements have been released, but any pre-match withdrawal would instantly shift the conditional token resolution to the default 50-50 outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.