Pronóstico: Which company has best AI model end of June?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on which company owns the model with the highest arena rank on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 June 2026. Today, Polymarket prices the "Yes" contract for Anthropic at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that the firm’s current top model will not secure the top spot by the settlement window.

Historically, similar leaderboard-based markets have swung sharply as new models launch; for instance, the June 2026 composite quality index shows Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 leading at 100/100, yet past snapshots reveal that early leaders often lose ground when style-control is removed or when newer entrants like Google’s latest Gemini variant surge in Elo scores[2]. The 0% price suggests traders expect a tie-break favouring alphabetical order (e.g., Google over Anthropic) or a superior score from a rival firm, mirroring how Manifold markets resolved similar tie scenarios in 2025[3].

Traders must watch for Anthropic’s scheduled model releases in late June and Google’s upcoming Gemini updates, as both firms have historically used pre-leaderboard snapshots to influence arena rankings[2]. A recent announcement from Google regarding its next-generation model’s inference speed and MATH benchmark performance could shift the arena score significantly before the 30 June check[2]. Additionally, dependencies on the LMSYS Arena’s daily auto-updated snapshots mean that any delay in data ingestion or a change in the leaderboard’s weighting algorithm could alter the final resolution[5]. The on-chain mechanics on Polygon, using USDC and conditional tokens, ensure that these catalysts directly impact the contract’s liquidity and price volatility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Which company has best AI model end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.