Pronóstico: Which company has best AI model end of July?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on which company secures the top spot on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by 12:00 PM ET on 31 July 2026, a metric determined solely by arena rank and Elo score. Currently, the market prices this outcome at 11% for the "YES" position, reflecting significant uncertainty about whether the leading contender can maintain dominance over the next six weeks.

Historically, leaderboard volatility has been high; models often surge or fall rapidly as new iterations are released, making early-season rankings unreliable predictors of final standings. In 2025, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 held the top composite quality index, yet subsequent releases from Google and Meta shifted the arena hierarchy within months [1]. This pattern suggests that the current 11% probability may understate the potential for a late-cycle challenger to overtake the incumbent, especially given the short settlement window.

Traders should monitor upcoming model release schedules and benchmark announcements, particularly from major developers like Google, Meta, and Anthropic, as these often trigger immediate leaderboard shifts. Recent reports indicate that multimodal capabilities and instruction-following refinements are now primary drivers of Elo gains, with human evaluation increasingly supplemented by automated GP4-based assessments [3]. Any delay in a flagship release or a negative benchmark result could drastically alter the probability landscape before the 31 July check.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Which company has best AI model end of July? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.