Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-4.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-6.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-7.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-5.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-4.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+1.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Winner | 16% |
| Match Winner | 11% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-8.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RRQ (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between Rex Regum Qeon and EDward Gaming in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 4 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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