Pronóstico: MLB: Runs Leader

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract resolves on which player accumulates the most runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, a metric distinct from home runs or batting average. Today, Polymarket prices this 24% YES probability on the Polygon network, where USDC settles conditional tokens for the winner. The market hinges on the official MLB leader, with tie-breakers favouring higher on-base percentage, then batting average, ensuring a single resolution even if multiple players hit identical run totals.

Historical parallels frame this 24% implied probability as a realistic entry point rather than an outlier. Aaron Judge currently holds a +350 favourite status for the 2026 home run lead, implying a 22.22% chance to top the majors in that category for the third time in five seasons[1]. Since runs and home runs often correlate for elite power hitters, Judge’s similar probability in the home run market suggests the runs leader contract is priced efficiently, reflecting the difficulty of sustaining a season-long lead without injury or slump.

Traders must monitor daily lineup announcements and injury reports, as a single missed game can derail a run accumulation streak. The settlement window closes on 28 September 2026, meaning the final two weeks of the season will dictate the outcome. Recent odds from DraftKings highlight contenders like Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez as key variables to watch, with their on-base performance directly influencing run totals[3]. Any shift in their playing time or health status will immediately impact the conditional token value on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.