Pronóstico: World Cup Group H Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Spain has already topped Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, securing the group winner spot ahead of Uruguay, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia[2][3]. This real-world outcome means the prediction market for "World Cup Group H Winner" will resolve to Spain, rendering the current 0% YES price on the contract a clear mispricing of the settled event. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token on Polygon, settled in USDC, where the on-chain mechanics will automatically allocate payouts to holders of the winning position once FIFA’s official standings are confirmed[1][4].

Historically, markets that lag behind official tournament results often correct sharply once the governing body publishes final standings, as seen in previous World Cup group-stage contracts where prices snapped to 100% within hours of FIFA’s announcement[1][5]. The 0% price likely stems from a delay in on-chain oracle updates rather than uncertainty about the outcome, since Spain’s qualification was decisive and uncontested[2][7]. Comparable cases from the 2022 and 2018 tournaments show that conditional token markets resolve to the actual winner once the official tiebreak procedure is applied, even if multiple teams initially appear competitive[2][5].

Traders should monitor FIFA’s official standings page for the final confirmation and any tiebreak procedure details, though Spain’s top position is already confirmed[1][2]. Key catalysts include the release of the knockout bracket and any official FIFA communications regarding Group H’s resolution, which will trigger the oracle to settle the contract[1][4]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms Spain’s advancement and the group’s final composition, providing a reliable reference for the market’s resolution[3]. With the settlement window ending on 27 June 2026, the on-chain system will process payouts based on these official results, ensuring USDC holders receive their conditional token returns promptly[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.