Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 65% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5) | 52% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-7.5) vs Team Heretics (+7.5) | 48% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 47% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 47% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-5.5) vs Team Heretics (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs All Gamers (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Valorant match between Team Heretics and All Gamers in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 3 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: Valorant: Team Heretics vs All Gamers (B… on Polymarket Argentina
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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