Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 75% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 75% |
| Match Winner | 71% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 66% |
| Map 1 Winner | 64% |
| Map 2 Winner | 59% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 57% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 54% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 37% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 25% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: valorant: mibr los vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL Internationa… on Polymarket Argentina
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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