🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogSee live odds →

Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Polymarket Argentina.

Tadej Pogačar 80% Cyclist A 50% Cyclist B 50% Cyclist C 50% Volume: $122K Liquidity: $368K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
Open live market →
Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 80% 20% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 80% 20% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Tadej Pogačar80%
Cyclist A50%
Cyclist B50%
Cyclist C50%
Cyclist D50%
Cyclist E50%
Cyclist F50%
Cyclist G50%
Cyclist H50%
Cyclist I50%
Cyclist J50%
Cyclist K50%
Cyclist L50%
Cyclist M50%
Cyclist N50%
Cyclist O50%
Cyclist P50%
Cyclist Q50%
Cyclist R50%
Cyclist S50%
Cyclist T50%
Cyclist U50%
Cyclist V50%
Cyclist W50%
Cyclist X50%
Cyclist Y50%
Cyclist Z50%
Cyclist AA50%
Cyclist AB50%
Cyclist AC50%
Cyclist AD50%
Cyclist AE50%
Cyclist AF50%
Cyclist AG50%
Cyclist AH50%
Cyclist AI50%
Cyclist AJ50%
Cyclist AK50%
Cyclist AL50%
Cyclist AM50%
Cyclist AN50%
Cyclist AO50%
Cyclist AP50%
Cyclist AQ50%
Cyclist AR50%
Cyclist AS50%
Cyclist AT50%
Cyclist AU50%
Cyclist AV50%
Cyclist AW50%
Cyclist AX50%
Cyclist AY50%
Cyclist AZ50%
Cyclist BA50%
Cyclist BB50%
Cyclist BC50%
Cyclist BD50%
Cyclist BE50%
Cyclist BF50%
Cyclist BG50%
Cyclist BH50%
Cyclist BI50%
Cyclist BJ50%
Cyclist BK50%
Cyclist BL50%
Cyclist BM50%
Cyclist BN50%
Cyclist BO50%
Cyclist BP50%
Cyclist BQ50%
Cyclist BR50%
Cyclist BS50%
Cyclist BT50%
Cyclist BU50%
Cyclist BV50%
Cyclist BW50%
Cyclist BX50%
Cyclist BY50%
Cyclist BZ50%
Cyclist CA50%
Cyclist CB50%
Other50%
Jonas Vingegaard17%
Paul Seixas2%
Remco Evenepoel1%
Florian Lipowitz1%
Isaac del Toro1%
Juan Ayuso0%
Tobias Halland Johannessen0%
Tom Pidcock0%
Cian Uijtdebroeks0%
Mattias Skjelmose0%
Richard Carapaz0%
Antonio Tiberi0%
Derek Gee-West0%
Matteo Jorgenson0%
Thymen Arensman0%
Adam Yates0%
Jai Hindley0%
Lenny Martinez0%
Ben O'Connor0%
Kévin Vauquelin0%
Ben Healy0%
Luke Plapp0%
Lennert Van Eetvelt0%
Egan Bernal0%
Brandon McNulty0%
Sepp Kuss0%
Michael Storer0%
Matthew Riccitello0%
Ilan Van Wilder0%
Valentin Paret-Peintre0%
Warren Barguil0%

Market context

The Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 80% YES. This market will resolve to the cyclist that wins the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to win the 2026 …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

Trade Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner on Polymarket Argentina

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina.

See all markets →

Related Topics

Sports