Pronóstico: North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026 kicks off today, offering a single slot to the global group stage, yet Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES, implying the crowd believes qualification is impossible for any North American team. On-chain, USDC trades on Polygon using conditional tokens, where the zero price reflects a stark lack of confidence in the region’s competitive depth rather than a technical glitch. This market resolves to “Other” if the official Group Stage list is not published by 15 August 2026, adding a resolution dependency that traders must weigh against the on-chain mechanics.

Historically, North America has struggled to secure TI slots since the introduction of regional qualifiers, with the region often failing to advance past early rounds despite hosting open qualifiers like the one held 9–10 June 2026 with 24 teams[1][5]. Comparable cases from TI 2024 and TI 2025 show the region consistently missing the final cut, reinforcing the 0% probability as a rational assessment of past performance rather than mere pessimism. The unified European qualifier introduced in TI 2026 further dilutes regional opportunities, making the single North American slot exceptionally hard to win[3].

Traders should monitor the official announcement of the full tournament field once qualifiers wrap on 28 June, as this will confirm whether any North American team advanced[2]. Key catalysts include the PGL-organised regional schedule and any delays in publishing the Group Stage participant list before the 15 August deadline[5]. Recent news from Dota 2 confirms the qualifier timeline and slot allocation, providing a factual baseline for evaluating the contract’s resolution risk[2]. Any postponement or cancellation of the event would trigger the “Other” outcome, making schedule adherence a critical dependency for the market’s validity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.