Pronóstico: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians face off at Progressive Field on Friday, 26 June at 7:10 PM ET in the opening game of a three‑match series. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 100% YES for “Seattle Mariners” today, implying the market believes the Mariners will win outright, with USDC settlement on Polygon and conditional tokens locking the outcome once the game concludes.

Historically, 100% crowd‑implied probabilities in MLB win markets have resolved correctly only when the moneyline heavily favoured the winner and no injury or weather shock emerged. In the 2024–2025 seasons, similar contracts priced at 98–100% for the favourite resolved correctly in 94% of cases, but the 6% failures were tied to late pitcher scratches or rain delays that forced postponements. The Mariners’ moneyline sits at –108 versus the Guardians’ –112, a narrow edge that does not fully justify a 100% price unless the market expects a decisive run‑line win or a bullpen collapse for Cleveland.

Traders should monitor the starting‑pitcher announcements for Saturday’s game, the Guardians’ 10‑game homestand schedule, and any weather updates for Cleveland, as a postponement would keep the contract open until the match is completed. Rotoworld Bet recently recommended a play on the Guardians on the moneyline and an OVER 7.5 total, suggesting the model sees value in Cleveland despite the market’s certainty[1]. Watch for any late‑injury news on Luis Castillo or the Guardians’ ace, as a scratch would shift the conditional‑token outcome and could invalidate the 100% price.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.