Pronóstico: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

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Market context

The Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets at Citi Field on 26 June 2026 at 7:10pm ET, with the prediction market currently pricing a 100% YES outcome for the Phillies to win. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where the on-chain mechanics lock in the implied probability before the game begins. The market remains open only if the game is postponed, resolving to 50-50 if cancelled entirely or tied, but the current pricing suggests no such uncertainty exists for this fixture.

Historically, 100% implied probabilities in MLB markets are rare and often signal either a completed event or a severe mispricing, yet comparable cases show that favourites like the Phillies can dominate when their recent form is exceptional. The Phillies scored eight runs in a 15-3 victory against the Nationals on 25 June 2026, demonstrating the offensive firepower that underpins this pricing[1]. While the Phillies are 26-37 against the spread as favourites this season, they have won six of their last ten such games, indicating a strong short-term trend that traders should weigh against the long-term average[2].

Traders must monitor the official final statistics released by MLB, as the market resolves solely on these recognised figures, and watch for any late-injury announcements or weather updates that could force a postponement. The game is scheduled at Citi Field, Flushing, NY, with ticket availability confirming the venue details[5]. No recent news source has reported a cancellation, but the settlement window ending 3 July 2026 means any delay would extend the resolution period, requiring patience from USDC holders waiting for the conditional token to settle.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.