Pronóstico: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB clash between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 25 June is the real-world event driving this contract, yet the market currently prices a Yankees victory at 0% YES, an extreme outlier given the teams’ form. Traditional bookmakers like FanDuel and Covers list the Yankees as clear favourites with moneylines of -112 and -142 respectively, while numberFire projects a 58.1% win probability for New York[1][2]. This stark divergence between on-chain pricing and conventional odds mirrors historical anomalies seen in volatile sports markets where liquidity gaps or delayed information caused temporary mispricing, such as the 2004 ALCS Game 5 where the Red Sox won the opener despite being underdogs, flipping early sentiment[7].

Traders must monitor immediate catalysts including the official starting lineups, pitch counts for rising star Cam Schlittler (1.71 ERA) versus Boston’s young rotation, and any weather delays at Fenway Park that could postpone the game[8]. The market remains open if postponed but resolves 50-50 if cancelled entirely, making the final confirmation of the game’s status a critical dependency[1]. Recent betting trends show the Yankees holding a 67% season win record against Boston’s 33%, suggesting the 0% price is likely a technical error rather than a reflection of genuine risk[3]. On-chain mechanics on Polygon using USDC conditional tokens mean this mispricing could be arbitraged quickly once the liquidity pool updates to align with the consensus odds of -120 to -142[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.