Pronóstico: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

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Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers meet today at Comerica Park for a 1:10 PM ET MLB game, with the market currently pricing a 49% chance of an Astros win. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on the Polygon network, where the 49% implied probability sits just below the 50% tie threshold, reflecting a tight contest where either side could resolve the contract.

Historically, MLB games between teams with similar win probabilities (45–55%) often resolve with a 50–50 outcome when the runline favours the home side by 1.5 runs, as seen in the Tigers’ current +168 moneyline advantage[1]. NumberFire’s model predicts a 56.9% Tigers win probability, suggesting the market may be undervaluing the home team’s edge in comparable June matchups where over/under totals hit 8.5 runs[1].

Traders should monitor the final pitching lineup announcements before 12:00 PM ET, as a late starter change for either team could shift the conditional token price significantly. The over/under total of 8.5 runs, with odds at -108 for the over and -112 for the under, indicates a high-scoring game is expected, which could impact resolution if the combined score exceeds this threshold[1]. Recent analysis from Pickdawgz confirms the Tigers’ favour in this matchup, citing their home-field advantage and the Astros’ 40–44 road record[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.