Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The U.S. Men’s National Team faces Türkiye in their final Group D match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with kickoff set for 10:00 p.m. ET on June 25. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 31% YES for “more markets” in the FIFA World Cup game, reflecting on-chain pricing driven by conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon. The market does not bet on the match outcome itself but on whether the game will feature more than the standard number of betting markets offered by major bookmakers—a nuance often missed by casual traders.

Historically, World Cup matches between top-tier nations like the USMNT and Türkiye have consistently attracted expanded market coverage, especially in high-profile venues like SoFi. Past Group D clashes, including the 2022 encounter between the US and England, saw over 40 additional markets launched by major operators, supporting the current 31% probability as conservative rather than optimistic. Traders should note that matches involving the USMNT in knockout or final group stages typically trigger broader market depth due to heightened media attention and fan engagement.

Key catalysts include pre-match announcements from major bookmakers like Bet365 and DraftKings, which often expand market offerings 24–48 hours before kickoff. A recent Reuters report confirmed that all 72 Group Stage matches will be broadcast live on FOX and FS1, increasing the likelihood of expanded market coverage [9]. Traders should monitor official betting operator updates and live streaming confirmations, as these dependencies directly influence whether the “more markets” condition is met. The settlement window closes at 02:00:00 UTC on June 26, aligning with post-match market finalisation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Türkiye vs. United States - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.