Pronóstico: Algeria vs. Austria - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Algeria and Austria face off in the final Group J match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 27 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, with both teams needing a result to secure second place and advance. On Polymarket, the “Exact Score” contract for this fixture currently trades at a 21% implied probability for the YES outcome, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens that settle automatically once the 90-minute result is confirmed on-chain.

Historically, this matchup carries weight from their only prior World Cup meeting, where Austria won 2–0 in the group stage, a result that frames how traders interpret the current 21% probability as leaning toward a low-scoring, defensive contest[1]. Over their last five matches, Algeria averages 1.4 goals per game while conceding 0.8, and Austria’s recent form shows similar restraint, with 60% of their games finishing over the total goals line[3]. These patterns suggest the market is pricing in a tight, tactical battle rather than an open, high-scoring affair.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late tactical shifts, as both teams are vying for second place with three points each, making motivation a key catalyst[4]. Additionally, watch for weather updates and pitch conditions at the venue, which could influence playing style and goal probability. Recent previews highlight the stakes, noting that the outcome will determine which team progresses to the Round of 32, adding urgency to the final minutes[4]. No major injury news has emerged yet, but any late changes could significantly alter the expected scoreline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Algeria vs. Austria - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.