Pronóstico: T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India

Platform comparison

Market context

Ireland has already secured a historic 2-0 T20 series sweep over India, defeating them by 34 runs in the first match and by a single run in the second, both played at Stormont Cricket Ground in Belfast. This outcome marks India’s first series defeat in the shortest format in three years, a stark reversal from their usual dominance against associate nations. The market’s 100% YES price on Polymarket today reflects this settled reality, not a speculative forecast; the contract is effectively resolved on-chain, with USDC payouts locked on Polygon via conditional tokens awaiting final settlement by the 5 July deadline.

Historically, India’s T20 record against Ireland has been overwhelmingly positive, with Ireland winning only sporadically before this series. The 2-0 sweep shatters that pattern, echoing rare upsets like New Zealand’s loss to Ireland in 2023, where form collapsed under pressure. Such cases show that even top-tier teams can falter on Irish soil, especially when early collapses—like India’s 153/9 in the second match—compound under tight margins. The 100% probability is thus grounded in completed on-field results, not theoretical odds.

Traders should monitor the official ESPNcricinfo final report for any post-match rulings, though no such changes are expected. The series schedule is closed, with both matches confirmed as completed; dependencies like DLS or DRS were irrelevant given the clear outcomes. As noted by Times of India, the series was broadcast on Sony Sports Network, confirming full coverage and result validation [4]. With no further matches pending, the only catalyst is the formal settlement confirmation, which will trigger automatic USDC distribution to YES holders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.