Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals + assists | 98% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ assists | 92% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots | 88% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots | 88% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots | 61% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Richard Ríos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| David Ospina: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Ospina: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordan Ayew: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luis Suárez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Iñaki Williams: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ goals | 23% |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals | 22% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| James Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 15% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Jordan Ayew: 3+ shots | 14% |
| James Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ assists | 13% |
| James Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Prince Adu Kwabena: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Richard Ríos: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luis Díaz: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals | 6% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Iñaki Williams: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Luis Díaz: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jordan Ayew: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Iñaki Williams: 2+ goals | 2% |
| James Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jordan Ayew: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Díaz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Suárez: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Luis Suárez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Richard Ríos: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
The Pronóstico: Colombia vs. Ghana - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Colombia and Ghana, scheduled for July 3 at 9:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: Colombia vs. Ghana - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Colombia vs. Ghana - Player Props on Polymarket Argentina
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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