Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 61% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 45% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 44% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 28% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 91% YES probability for Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade Pronóstico: Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props on Polymarket Argentina
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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