Pronóstico: T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India

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Market context

The first T20 International between Ireland and India, scheduled for 26 June 2026 in Belfast, has already concluded with Ireland winning by 34 runs after scoring 182/9 while restricting India to 148 in 18.5 overs[1][2]. This decisive on-field result means the prediction market titled “Ireland vs India” is effectively settled, with the crowd-implied 100% YES probability reflecting the finalized outcome rather than a speculative forecast[2].

Historically, when a match ends with a clear margin—such as Ireland’s 34-run victory—conditional tokens on Polymarket resolve immediately once the official scorecard is published by ESPNcricinfo, with no further on-chain action required[2]. In past T20 tours, including India’s 2023 visit to Ireland, similar outright wins triggered automatic USDC payouts on the Polygon network, confirming that the 100% probability here is a mechanical certainty, not a market opinion[1].

Traders should monitor the official scorecard confirmation on espncricinfo.com, which is the sole resolution source for this contract[2]. While the first match is complete, the second T20I on 28 June 2026 remains pending, but it does not affect this market’s settlement[3]. No further announcements or dependencies exist; the result is already final, and the conditional token will settle to 100% YES as per the published match outcome[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.