Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Match O/U 36.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Match O/U 38.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Match O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 80% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 17% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 16% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 10% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 4 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: wimbledon atp: andrey rublev vs roman safiullin. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Andrey Rublev and Roman Safiullin in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Sa… on Polymarket Argentina
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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