Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 92% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 Winner | 73% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 56% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Match O/U 36.5 | 37% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: wimbledon atp: alejandro davidovich fokina vs juan manuel cerundolo stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Foki… on Polymarket Argentina
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