Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Argentina) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 3 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Match O/U 40.5 | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen | 80% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 77% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Match O/U 38.5 | 63% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Match O/U 36.5 | 62% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 6% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 3% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: wimbledon atp: arthur fery vs otto virtanen. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fery and Otto Virtanen in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Argentina, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Argentina. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Argentina trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Otto Virtanen on Polymarket Argentina
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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