Pronóstico: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The listed team currently holds a 68% chance of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16, a threshold that reflects solid but not guaranteed progression from the group stage. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0.68 USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens lock the payout until the settlement window closes on 4 July 2026. The price implies the team is likely to finish in the top two of their group or secure one of the eight best third-placed spots, a mechanism introduced for the first time with the expanded 48-team format [4][5].

Historically, teams entering the knockout stage with similar probabilities have faced volatile outcomes; in the 2014 and 2018 tournaments, third-placed qualifiers often exited immediately unless they possessed exceptional defensive records. The 2026 expansion alters this dynamic, as eight third-placed teams now advance, increasing the likelihood of survival for mid-tier squads compared to previous eras where only top-two finishers progressed [4]. This structural shift supports the current 68% valuation, suggesting the market prices in the expanded qualification path rather than relying solely on traditional top-two finishes.

Traders must monitor the final group-stage fixtures, as Mexico’s match against Czechia and Canada’s clash with Switzerland will determine final standings and third-place rankings [1]. The knockout bracket will be declared shortly after the group stage concludes, with Round of 16 matches scheduled from 4 to 7 July across eight stadiums in North America [2]. Any delay in bracket declaration or cancellation of the tournament after 17 July 2026 would resolve the market to "No", making the official FIFA announcement the critical catalyst for position management [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.