Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed to commercial shipping, with transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels per day. This shutdown stems from the ongoing Iran war, which has halted traffic for weeks and triggered a surge in oil and essential goods prices. President Trump has declared that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress, leading him to impose a naval blockade against Iran following earlier Iranian assaults on vessels [2].

Historically, such closures have been brief, but the current conflict has extended the standstill far beyond typical disruptions. While some MarineTraffic data suggests a gradual return to normal levels despite lingering uncertainty, the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average recorded only 13.14 vessels on 21 June 2026, far below the 60-vessel threshold required for this market to resolve as “Yes” [5][6]. The crowd-implied 89% probability of a “Yes” outcome appears optimistic given that the strait remains effectively closed and the geopolitical prerequisites for reopening remain unmet [1].

Traders should monitor Trump’s ceasefire conditions and any announcements regarding the naval blockade, as these are the primary catalysts for reopening. The market resolves only if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls, a metric that excludes unreported ships and includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels [2]. With the settlement window ending 31 December 2026, the on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon (settled in USDC) will reflect whether the geopolitical pressure forces a reopening before year-end [4]. Any delay in negotiations or escalation in hostilities could invalidate the high probability of a “Yes” resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.