Pronóstico: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin has ruled Russia for 26 years, and the real-world question is whether his grip on the presidency will break before the end of 2026. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at a 10% probability for "Yes", reflecting a crowd view that his removal is unlikely but not impossible[1]. The market uses USDC on the Polygon network, settling via conditional tokens that resolve to "Yes" if Putin ceases to be president for any period, including detention or effective removal[3].

Historically, leaders with entrenched institutional control and constitutional term extensions rarely exit power abruptly, as seen in Putin’s continued hold through late June 2026, where the probability for removal by that date was 0%[2]. Comparable cases of forced exits in authoritarian regimes usually follow health crises, internal coups, or massive public unrest, none of which are currently evident. Metaculus forecasters, by contrast, estimate Putin’s exit around April 2030, suggesting a long tenure[4].

Traders should watch for official announcements from the Kremlin, Putin’s scheduled appearances at events like the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2026), and any signs of internal dissent or health issues[8]. A recent Channel 4 News report noted Putin’s belief that the Ukraine war may be ending, which could shift domestic dynamics[9]. Any sudden resignation, detention, or effective removal before December 31, 2026, will immediately resolve the market to "Yes"[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.